Santa Monica Weather for Wednesday, 23-Jul-2008 22:27:28 PDT

Santa Monica Airport ATIS

KSMO 240451Z AUTO 23005KT 7SM OVC008 19/15 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP124 T01890150 TSNO

Wind 230 degrees (Southwest) at 05
Visibity 7 Statute Miles
Sky Solid Overcast at 800ft
Temperature 19, Dewpoint 15, Altimiter 29.90,

Van Nuys Airport ATIS

KVNY 240451Z 00000KT 10SM CLR 22/12 A2989 RMK AO2 SLP114 T02170117

Wind 000 degrees (North) at 00
Visibity 10 Statute Miles
Sky Sky Clear
Temperature 22, Dewpoint 12, Altimiter 29.89,

Camrarillo Airport ATIS

KCMA 240455Z 00000KT 8SM OVC007 17/14 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP133 T01670144

Wind 000 degrees (North) at 00
Visibity 8 Statute Miles
Sky Solid Overcast at 700ft
Temperature 17, Dewpoint 14, Altimiter 29.90,

000 fxus66 klox 240335 afdlox

Southwest California area forecast discussion national weather service los angeles/oxnard ca 835 pm pdt Wednesday jul 23 2008

Update..Marine layer 1000 feet deep and similar to last two nights. Onshore pressure gradient reached 6.4mb between lax-dag..Which is the strongest in several days. This all bodes well for another night of low clouds and fog for coastal zones and parts of valley zones. Stratus and fog has already pushed inland from Santa Barbara to oxr which is a different twist from last night when it moved into lax first. Also of note..The northern extent of the stratus is across morro bay with clear skies to the north.

Temperatures today were right about normal for this time of the year and a few degrees lower than expected from previous forecasts. previous to tonights model runs..The WRF had been pumping the heights significantly during the week but now it has backed off. The 00z WRF shows a slightly weaker high pressure area and 950mb temperatures of about 38c for friday and saturday afternoons. This will put temperatures about 5 degrees above normal for the desert and mountains..But really not significant for heat-related problem. valleys and coasts will remain about normal due to onshore winds each day.

There is very little indication at this time that the monsoon will make it into our region over the weekend. 850mb dewpoint temps that are critical for monsoon moisture stay too low and may be suppressed by the high pressure area sitting over southern calif during the period. Thunderstorms were removed from the friday forecast and may need to be trimmed for the remainder of the weekend after further review of new model data.

..From previous discussion...

Temps-wise Saturday is very tricky..As the NAM increases onshore gradients on Saturday while the GFS waits until sun. Based on the 12z water vapor pattern..The GFS initialized much better than the NAM and am going to lean heavier on the GFS as a result. If the NAM proves correct however..Temps would decrease much more than the current forecast suggests.

Long term (sunday-wednesday)... As onshore flow increases on Sunday and high pressure aloft weakens..Temps should decrease on Sunday and stay about the same on mon. Once the previously mentioned trough moves out of ca..High pressure will begin to build back into ca on tue..And temps should begin to warm up a bit more over the interior portions. Decent onshore flow will moderate that warming along the coast and coastal valleys however. There is a shot of mid-level moisture lingering around on Sunday and left the slight chances over the la/vtu co mountains and deserts going..But the model trends are scaling back the possibility. As the high pushes back westward Tuesday and wed..There is another window for some mid-level southeast flow returning..But did not bite on this quite yet other than keeping 10 pops going through the extended.

&&

Aviation...23/2330z. Marine layer has decreased to about 1000 feet..Which has been the norm for the past several days during the late afternoons. Low clouds holding their own along the central coast and around point conception to santa rosa island. Expect stratus to redevelop tonight for all coastal areas due to a weak eddy circulation across the bight. Onshore gradients are just as strong as 24-hours ago and a similar marine layer will result in clouds pushing into the valleys again late tonight.

Klax..Good confidence in clear skies until late evening when mvfr cigs/vsbys will redevelop..Mainly after 05z.

Kbur..Good confidence in clear skies until late tonight when ifr cigs/vsbys return to the valleys..Mainly after 09z.

&&

Lox watches/warnings/advisories... None.

&&

$$

Public..Boldt/kittell aviation..Boldt

WwwWeatherGov/losangeles

Live Web Cam From Will Rogers State Beach

This web cam is located mid-way along the route I've been taking on my lessons, so pretty much covers all the weather I'm likely to encounter during a flight.  Click on the pictures for a bigger view.  It's pretty cool.

Some Quick Links

The Aviation Digital Data Service - Interesting stuff, lots of Java interfaces to stuff like METAR, TAF, PIREPS and other data. Probably useful for planning longer flights.

Rainfall Radar from NOAA

False Color Clouds from NOAA

Four Hour Western USA Visible - From NOAA

This is what the satellite sees, so it gets dark at night.  This requires Java, so might not work in all browsers.  Go to Sun's Java Page, if you need to download the latest version of Java.

Java must be enabled for radar loops to display.

Reflective Radar from NOAA

This web page is designed to collect, in one place, and in real time, all the weather related resources that might be useful to someone who is flying out of Santa Monica Airport. It is a combination of information extracted from web pages using PERL scripts, linked images, java applets and entire embedded web pages.

Times in the METAR information, and on the satellite images are in Universal Time Code, or "Zulu" time, for example:  23:30 UTC or 2330Z.  Zulu time is the same as Greenwich Mean Time (GMT), and is 8 hours ahead of PST (Pacific Standard Time), or 7 hours ahead when Daylight Savings Time is in effect (PDT).  So, to convert FROM Zulu/UTC time, subtract eight hours, so 2330Z is 15:30 PST, or 3:30 PM PST.