Santa Monica Weather for Thursday, 11-Mar-2010 17:26:51 MST

Santa Monica Airport ATIS

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Van Nuys Airport ATIS

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Camrarillo Airport ATIS

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000 fxus66 klox 112137 afdlox

Southwest California area forecast discussion national weather service los angeles/oxnard ca 130 pm pst thu mar 11 2010

Synopsis... High pressure is the main influence for the southland through friday with seasonable temperatures. A weak system will bring chances of rain to the northern areas friday night and saturday..With cooling everywhere. Stronger ridge builds in early next week for well above seasonal temperatures.

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Short term (today-sunday)... Warmer day today as temperatures are up a good 5-10 degrees..With the mountains leading the charge. Weak offshore gradients along with a building ridge to the southwest are to be thanked for this. Breezy northeast winds continue over the favored areas of la/vtu counties..But look good to not even approach advisory levels.

Fri still looking about on par to today..But not as warm to the north as the system dropping down from alaska approaches the region. an amplifying trough just south of alaska..And just west of the deeper low swirling north of vancouver..Will swing around the low on friday. The trough will suck up ample moisture sitting to the west of California..And form a somewhat organized frontal band that will sweep down the coast. This band still looks to have a decent enough jet to it to hold together and affect San Louis Obispo and possibly northern Santa Barbara counties friday night..With around a tenth of an inch expected. upped pops slightly..With northern San Louis Obispo co having the best shot at rain..Locally up to 0.25-0.40 inches over the santa lucias. Besides some north slopes snow/rain..Not expecting any precipitation over LA or Ventura counties at this time..But would not be surprised to see a spit or spat of rain come saturday. About a 5 degree cool down is in store on Saturday as a result..And gusty northwesterly winds look to return behind the front. These winds continue to look stronger..And the santa ynez range and i-5 corridor look poised for at least an advisory Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Gale warnings look favorable over the coastal waters as well.

The northerly winds should push down into the LA valleys and santa monica mountains saturday night..Then shift to the northeast as the trough cuts off and forms a cold closed low over nevada by sunday morning. Advisory northeast winds are looking more and more possible over the favored la/vtu spots..Likely to push into the coastal sections by late sunday morning. Meanwhile as the low pushes further to the east..A healthy ridge will start its advancement from the southwest. As a result..Sunday looks to be warmer than today..With near normal temps to close out the weekend.

Long term (monday-thursday)... The ridge to the southwest continue to build into monday..With good model and ensemble agreement for a 580dm ridge covering the western united states. With weak-moderate offshore gradients continuing as well..Temps still look good to soar monday and tuesday..With 80s likely over most of the inland coastal and valley areas. Wednesday continues to look a touch cooler with the ridge nudging eastward as a trough pushes into the pac northwest. The picture after that remains very blurry. Although the GFS keeps moderate ridging over California..Which nearly all the GFS ensembles agree with..The ECMWF continues to show a rather strangely fast retrograding trough over the region by thu. Did bring more cooling on thursday as a middle ground..But will continue to favor the GFS with its ensembles giving it better credibility.

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Aviation...11/1930z. High confidence in 18z tafs. Clear skies and vfr conditions through friday.

Klax and Burbank Airport..High confidence in vfr forecasts from 18z tafs.

***note*** the asos equipment at Burbank Airport..Kvny..Khhr..Kcma..And koxr has a software error that may lead to incorrect cloud heights when there are two or more cloud layers present. Observations at Burbank Airport will be quality controlled 24 hours a day..Observations at Van Nuys Airport will be quality controlled from 13z-07z..Observations at koxr will be quality controlled from 15z-05z. Tafs for Van Nuys Airport and koxr will not be amended for cigs during the time the observations are not monitored and there are two or more cloud layers present.

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Lox watches/warnings/advisories... Small craft advisory (see laxmwwlox). High surf advisory (see laxcfwlox).

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Public..Kittell aviation..Sweet synopsis..Hoffer

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